by Avastone Consulting) resumed a conversation with Chris Martenson, who comments about current and future events in a body of orignal work that he calls the Crash Course.
I blogged about the previous conversation with Martenson here.
He builds upon his explanation about the mathematical effects of compound growth, and why the more sanguine of economic forecasters (i.e., most economic forecasters) fail to recognize the interrelationships amongst the environment, the economy and energy supplies. Important attributes of each of these areas, Martenson argues, currently exhibit troubling compound growth trends: for example in the destruction of ecosystems, financial debt and the availability of cheap petroleum.
More importantly, these attributes of our civilized world have mutually turned a corner in the "hockey stick" profile of their compound growth trends. Thus, Martenson says it has hit the fan.
He builds upon his explanation about the mathematical effects of compound growth, and why the more sanguine of economic forecasters (i.e., most economic forecasters) fail to recognize the interrelationships amongst the environment, the economy and energy supplies. Important attributes of each of these areas, Martenson argues, currently exhibit troubling compound growth trends: for example in the destruction of ecosystems, financial debt and the availability of cheap petroleum.
More importantly, these attributes of our civilized world have mutually turned a corner in the "hockey stick" profile of their compound growth trends. Thus, Martenson says it has hit the fan.
So what happens when we go too far up the "hockey stick?" Volitility increases and system events (shocks) happen more frequently. At best, we will continue to socialize private debts, and the economy recovers slowly.
A gloomier scenario portends a currency crisis in the next 4-5 years, as faith in the Dollar as the world's reserve currency crumbles under the load of massive U.S. Federal debt. It is made even worse by another spike in oil prices, possibly staying high as supplies of cheap oil must be replaced by more expensive deepwater and unconventional reserves.
Martenson predicts this oil shock in the next 2-3 years, based on the peak oil theory. He also warns that coal reserves, long thought to be an ace-in-the hole for U.S. domestic energy policy, may be smaller than previously estimated. This is the first time I have heard a suggestion that coal supplies are in trouble, and I have not yet examined the basis for this claim.
Obviously, Martenson sees the need for radical changes in public policy and individual behaviors on a mass scale. This change, he argues, will not originate from Washington policy wonks, academics and politicians.
The winds which guide their actions push them towards the political Center, creating an effective stabilizing force for the status quo. Martenson instead sees the change originating from a broad-based social movement which is already underway: an amalgamation of activist groups with no central philosophy other than the individual desire to contribute to the public good in any way they can.
This vision for a social movement is both powerful and alluring, and I wish that Martenson had more time to explain. It echos the ideas that Paul Hawken poses in his latest book, Blessed Unrest.
I'm a huge fan of both Martenson and Hawken, and I read Blessed Unrest. It occurred to me the other day that humans are basically herd animals, and the key is figuring out how to herd them. For instance, using canvas bags at a grocery store has suddenly become normal -- for years I was considered an oddity. Hotels now normally only do laundry on request. In both cases, the company saves money and the consumer gets to help the Earth a little. We need to find more of these win-win scenarios and just keep pushing. At the same time we need to culture jam the impotent institutions that are resisting change and protecting the status quo -- yeah, that includes religion. Cheers.
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