Pedaling Revolution

Last week in the NY Times Book Review, David Byrne reviewed a new book about the resurgence of bicycling and how it is changing American cities. Pedaling Revolution, by Jeff Mapes, sounds like an engaging read and has taken top position on my to-read list.

I most appreciated Byrne's comments, as he is a dedicated NYC bike commuter of 30 years. Using his keen pop culture sensibilities, Byrne posits that bicycling's macho extreme sport image impairs its ability to gain popularity as a legitimate form of transportation.

He welcomes how bike manufacturers have finally begun introducing commuter-friendly designs "for the rest of us." He toasts the way that Mapes re-frames the tired language of bicycle commuting into the more results-oriented active transportation. In the minds of the non-bicycling public, the latter suggests fitness and practicality: the former, kooks and outliers.
Byrne suggests that popular attitudes about bicycling will really improve when it becomes more woman-friendly.

I can ride till my legs are sore and it won't make riding any cooler, but when attractive women are seen sitting upright going about their city business on bikes day and night, the crowds will surely follow.

And he cites a few promising examples involving well-known actresses and models.

Tabloid fodder does not a revolution make, but it's a start.

Viva the revolution!

High Sticking the Future

This week's ZOOM'D Leadership Radio Show (arranged

by Avastone Consulting) resumed a conversation with Chris Martenson, who comments about current and future events in a body of orignal work that he calls the Crash Course.

I blogged about the previous conversation with Martenson here.

He builds upon his explanation about the mathematical effects of compound growth, and why the more sanguine of economic forecasters (i.e., most economic forecasters) fail to recognize the interrelationships amongst the environment, the economy and energy supplies. Important attributes of each of these areas, Martenson argues, currently exhibit troubling compound growth trends: for example in the destruction of ecosystems, financial debt and the availability of cheap petroleum.

More importantly, these attributes of our civilized world have mutually turned a corner in the "hockey stick" profile of their compound growth trends. Thus, Martenson says it has hit the fan.

So what happens when we go too far up the "hockey stick?" Volitility increases and system events (shocks) happen more frequently. At best, we will continue to socialize private debts, and the economy recovers slowly.

A gloomier scenario portends a currency crisis in the next 4-5 years, as faith in the Dollar as the world's reserve currency crumbles under the load of massive U.S. Federal debt. It is made even worse by another spike in oil prices, possibly staying high as supplies of cheap oil must be replaced by more expensive deepwater and unconventional reserves.

Martenson predicts this oil shock in the next 2-3 years, based on the peak oil theory. He also warns that coal reserves, long thought to be an ace-in-the hole for U.S. domestic energy policy, may be smaller than previously estimated. This is the first time I have heard a suggestion that coal supplies are in trouble, and I have not yet examined the basis for this claim.

Obviously, Martenson sees the need for radical changes in public policy and individual behaviors on a mass scale. This change, he argues, will not originate from Washington policy wonks, academics and politicians.

The winds which guide their actions push them towards the political Center, creating an effective stabilizing force for the status quo. Martenson instead sees the change originating from a broad-based social movement which is already underway: an amalgamation of activist groups with no central philosophy other than the individual desire to contribute to the public good in any way they can.

This vision for a social movement is both powerful and alluring, and I wish that Martenson had more time to explain. It echos the ideas that Paul Hawken poses in his latest book, Blessed Unrest.