I have considered the lectures of many analysts and visionaries each of whom have concluded that we're screwed, meaning that the economic, environmental and social order that we currently enjoy is doomed. The best of these have girded their cases by weaving together numerous contemporary trends into a big picture. By taking a wholistic view, they overcome the reductionist tendencies of mainstream analysts and “experts,” presenting fresh evidence to suggest that any effort—no matter how great—will fail in restoring and maintaining the status quo many of us enjoyed only a few short months ago.
The party's over, they say.
With this, Chris Martenson dives into this doomer genre with clarity and hope. His Crash Course excels at identifying and describing in easy-to-understand terms certain trends—in energy, financial capital, and human population—that make the current situation so unique and pivotal in determining our future. We are at a confluence of nonlinear trends that are linked to each other.
He deserves special credit for his recognizing the primacy of human population growth amongst these trends, something often overlooked by others. How else could we overlook the significance of there being more humans alive today than have ever lived—cumulatively—since the dawn of Homo Sapeins Sapiens over 120,000 years ago?
Eight years ago, I realized that the party was nearly over and wracked my brain to find a way to show the “big picture” for all to easily see. I envisioned a set of line graphs depicting time-based trends, showing the “hockey stick” inflection points portending imminent consequences. With each of these graphs—for human population growth, the economy, global temperatures, species extinctions, natural resource depletions—there would be an arrow pointing to the present day at or near the inflection point, with an overall title “You are here.”
Somehow, I could not find and assemble the data needed to fit this concept. In Crash Course, Martenson nails it!
His outlook for the future is pragmatically hopeful. First, we should all agree that our world has changed dramatically and irrevocably to the extent that there is little possibility of restoring that which we previously considered to be “normal living.”
The next twenty years will be unlike the previous 20 years.
With this come two essential realities: that the age of economic growth fueled by mass consumerism is over. We cannot borrow-and-buy our way out of this mess, including the “innovative” methods of Wall Streeters that turned our global banking system into a casino.
Also, economic growth is subject to limits imposed by natural, earth-based systems. All human activity is ultimately governed by the availability of energy, clean air, fresh water, healthy soil, viable fisheries, and so on. These systems have a finite capacity to provide us what we need, and so goes our aspirations for growth: finitely.
We therefore are faced with a future quite different from our past experience. We can either shape it according to these realities, or we can have our future dictated to us by the physical world.
In Crash Course, Martinsen states that we have all the knowledge and technologies we need to create a better future for ourselves, and the only thing we currently lack is the political will to do so. It's not hard to see where we stand politically, judging by way that the Government's efforts to “recover” from the current recession/depression are largely focused on restoring the status quo: bailing out the multinational banks and the automobile companies.
Politically, we have not addressed the realities.
On this point, Crash Course, comes up short. Our political preoccupations are merely a reflection of more powerful barriers to meaningful change. In Martinsen's finely-reasoned treatise he does not uncover the root causes of our problems, and therefore his recommended actions sound tired and weak.
To develop an effective strategy, we need to understand how we got into this mess. This is where the New Renaissance can help.
More on that soon...
Bravo on this post. I learned about Chris Martenson just a few months ago, and have already become a great fan of his work. I did not know about his personal background -- that is fascinating. Since learning about him, I've seen his name pop up several times on varous forums.
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